[Politics] - How Likely is War with Iran?

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Worgen:

I like how you trumples will always say that anything he said in the primaries or during the election was just talk. Seriously, I've been rewatching some old Destiny debates and you guys always handwave anything he said despite all his actions. Never vote for a republican if you want someone who won't be looking for a war or balloon spending, they always do it. They don't want less government spending, they just want it to be spent on the military, which you would think small government people would be against.

Spending is ballooning and that is disconcerting. I don't know about military spending but the MSM does seem pissed off that Trump will not enter war. It was the libertarian right and left that are still pissed about the last Syria bombing which appears to be a hoax. But do not fool yourself into thinking this war hawk stuff is limited to Republicans. The Democratic establishment adores war too. Huge money in it. I'll have to do some checking about what has happened with military spending Trump relative to Obama. Wonder if immigration concerns has impacted the spending. EDIT:

Check 1960-2017 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=US

Gergar12:
You guys were panicking about a war with North Korea, and Venezuela some time ago.

Chill out we aren't going to war, Trump will just forget about it as long as Rouhani meets him, or he gets bored.

Uhhh...

We just got within 10 minutes of an airstrike last week against one of the three strongest military powers in the region over a drone. Iran has realized that Trump doesn't have the stomach to commit to a war and are still royally pissed off about Trump backing out of the nuclear deal (which was working according to every country except Israel, but including the US) and putting sanctions back on its economy, making it look like the US went back on its word (which it did) and pretty much fucking up its economy.

Now Iran is essentially pushing and pushing him because they know he doesn't want to go to war, so they're willing to risk war in order to make the point that Iran is not a country that you can simply make demands of without real give and take. Diplomatic relations now essentially involve the president tweeting threats that Iran can essentially counter with provocations because they, as every world government knows, that Trump is weak and his bluster is a sign of his weakness. And the top foreign policy and military officials around him are all rooting for a serious military confrontation with Iran because he dismissed, fired, or ignored the officials that urged restraint and deliberation.

So, yeah, I'm a tad concerned we're moving to a war lead by a thin-skinned executive who doesn't even seem to understand how the government he heads up is ran and doesn't appreciate the basics of diplomacy and seems to realize too late that the sycophants he's now surrounded himself with have been using him to advance their own agendas under the cover of his decisions.

I don?t think he has a political center. But underneath his surface, I think he is a business Democrat.

I think that's something Republicans tell themselves to assuage feelings of discomfort with a president representing their party. Where he's approved of, no comment. Where he's disapproved of he conveniently becomes a crypto-Democrat.

Gorfias:
I saw a clip in which he states he as Bolton to balance out those advisors trying to keep him out of war. Do you think the generals, or Bolton or the military industrial complex (do you think there is one?) were happy when Trump said, ?nah? to bombing Iran over the drone?

In essence yes there is a military industrial complex - all those arms companies and the military itself (personnel, their families, etc.) will form a unified front to favour defence spending, and companies will favour military actions so they can test out their new toys in a live environment. How powerful it is, however, is less clear. When defence spending was nearly ~10% of GDP it was much more powerful than now when it's ~3% GDP.

I don't trust a single thing Trumps says. Nobody should. He lies and bullshits with total abandon. Whatever else anyone thinks about Trump, they must think that nothing he says can be reliably true or even half true. But let's assume he's telling the truth. Why would a president that wants less war appoint the hawkiest of hawks to balance other advisors that counsel against war?

Why is a president who wants less war committing to ever increasing defence budgets? He started off years ago saying it was too high. Then he started campaigning in 2016 and said it wasn't enough and it was time to obliterate the USA's enemies. Then he got in and said he wanted it cut again. Then he agreed to huge hikes.

How on earth do we believe that a president who picks a million fights and tramples over a million and one government conventions can't resist the military-industrial complex? And if he accedes to them, what on earth are we to make of claims to "drain the swamp"? What are we to make of the competence and understanding of a president that announces he wants reduced funding and deployments, and then is convinced to do the opposite a few weeks later?

What are we to make of his desire for grandiose militaristic parades (since aborted)? He's increased overseas deployment of servicemen, much into war zones (e.g. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan). Although of course due to use of mercenaries - sorry, "military contractors" - it's also unclear quite how much action is being done that can't be readily observed. And then there's his rhetoric and actions which are likely to encourage conflict - and you most certainly can end up in a war by accident. And scrapping nuclear proliferation agreements? Is that really going to make the world safer?

Nothing makes sense about the idea Trump wants less military action. The kindest way we can assess him is a clueless blowhard overseeing policy chaos.

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