The new cold war.

So, its looking like trump just got us into a new cold war with Russia.

If you aren't aware, trump pulled us out of a nuclear missile pact we had with Russia. Interestingly, this was a pact that only benefited us since it stopped the development of mid ranged land based missiles. Most of our missiles are sea based.

I'll let Beau explain it.
https://youtu.be/WP_BGUp-ScQ

Anyway, Russia has just announced that they are starting development on mid ranged missiles and will be deploying them soon.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nuclear-russia/russia-plans-new-missile-systems-to-counter-u-s-by-2021-idUSKCN1PU0TG

So, that's fun.

It seems it's time to bring this PSA back ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqXu-5jw60

Rephrase: Trump Administration gives Russia the official 6-month countdown to get back into compliance with the treaty before it's nullified. There's half a year of possible diplomacy about the issue before the US is officially out of anything. And even the most staunch opponent's of pulling out admit Russia isn't complying with it anyway.

It's hard to say the pact only benefited the US when the US was the only party effectively restricted by it.

The Cold War never ended. Remember Putin is ex-KGB. He's still pissed he didn't get to nuke New York. The Soviet Union fell, sure, but the people in it didn't and they've been rebuilding and fighting in the shadows since.

tstorm823:
Rephrase: Trump Administration gives Russia the official 6-month countdown to get back into compliance with the treaty before it's nullified. There's half a year of possible diplomacy about the issue before the US is officially out of anything. And even the most staunch opponent's of pulling out admit Russia isn't complying with it anyway.

It's hard to say the pact only benefited the US when the US was the only party effectively restricted by it.

Putin wants out of the treaty. It only hurt Russia. All our nukes are sea based, they don't have the same capability. With the treaty gone he can actively pursue the goal instead of having to do it behind the scenes which is harder. Plus he gets the added benefit of the US pulling out of yet another treaty, which makes us look unreliable. So he would win on two fronts.

Worgen:

Putin wants out of the treaty. It only hurt Russia. All our nukes are sea based, they don't have the same capability. With the treaty gone he can actively pursue the goal instead of having to do it behind the scenes which is harder. Plus he gets the added benefit of the US pulling out of yet another treaty, which makes us look unreliable. So he would win on two fronts.

If it becomes an active cold war scenario, Putin loses almost instantly. The economy of Russia is already basically stagnant, the argument that land based missiles are meaningless for the US also means land based missiles are meaningless against us, I tend to think actively and openly pursuing offensive capabilities that endanger the eastern hemisphere is going to hurt relations with Russia's more immediate neighbors more than it hurts the US. If Putin wants an arms race, he's an idiot.

And the optics of signing a treaty and then not expecting other parties to follow the treaty they signed is worse than the optics of pulling out of a treaty that the other party is violating anyway.

Edit: Putin's bluff has been called and he has no hand to back it up. He's lucky anyone is giving him the chance to fold gracefully from the situation.

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Russia been basically ignoring this treaty anyway? Or at the very least refusing to let people check they were complying? It's hard to say a treaty was only hurting russia when they may not have been adhering to it anyway.
Normally I'd hate to side with trump, but I can't say I fault him on this unless this turns out to be an Iran situation where people were just saying they were breaking the treaty without evidence.

TrulyBritish:
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Russia been basically ignoring this treaty anyway? Or at the very least refusing to let people check they were complying? It's hard to say a treaty was only hurting russia when they may not have been adhering to it anyway.
Normally I'd hate to side with trump, but I can't say I fault him on this unless this turns out to be an Iran situation where people were just saying they were breaking the treaty without evidence.

Of course they are trying to ignore it, but doing things under the table is slower and more expensive then doing them in the open. The problem is we lost nothing from the treaty, getting rid of it only hurts us and helps Russia. Our missiles are mostly sea based, the treaty only impacted land based launchers.

It would look really bad for them to openly break the treaty but if we pull out of it, then we look bad for pulling out of another treaty and they get to be open about developing and placing new launchers. With the treaty in place they couldn't really deploy them or at least deploy them well, with it gone, now they can without looking as bad.

This whole treaty has been irrelevant for years, as the situation it was written to handle stopped existing with the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and reunification of Germany. I can break down the whole situation in a bit more detail if anyone wants it, but essentially the INF Treaty addressed concerns on both sides about the possibility of a decapitating theatre-level strike in Europe.

Worgen:
. Interestingly, this was a pact that only benefited us since it stopped the development of mid ranged land based missiles. Most of our missiles are sea based.

Which is all the more reason for the Russians to ditch it, if they're the only ones limited by it.

Russia is not communist any more. They're not a threat outside of the scope of other countries like China or Pakistan (both countries with nukes that we're not super friendly with). This hyper-focus is something done to make people avoid examining the failures of the democrat establishment first and foremost and any other purported concern is gasslighting.

Russia doesn't have a gazillion of its allies surrounding us, we have a gazillion of our allies surrounding them and we treat it as normal. They get to do a couple of things that rub us the wrong way without it being "a new cold war" all of a sudden.

Hasn't the new cold war started half a decade ago? About the time Russia started invading its neighbors and illegally annexing land?

Dreiko:
Russia is not communist any more. They're not a threat outside of the scope of other countries like China or Pakistan (both countries with nukes that we're not super friendly with). This hyper-focus is something done to make people avoid examining the failures of the democrat establishment first and foremost and any other purported concern is gasslighting.

Russia is a country with a colossal inferiority complex that has not come to terms with its fall from being a global power.

Russia (including as the USSR) has been used to being a major power for hundreds of years. Since 1990, it's gone. Russia was, for instance, accustomed to having a very considerable say in anything east of the Vistula river (and sometimes beyond). It has possessed and abused a lot of its neighbours (such as Ukraine and Georgia) over the years, and many people in those countries have built up plenty of resentment. Now Russia no longer owns them and has nothing to offer them, they are looking elsewhere - chiefly to the West - for opportunities and progress which they will not get from Russia. And Russia hates all that.

It has substantially nothing but military power, and so it throws around threats, intimidation, interference plus occasional invasions and butchery. It could play ball with the West and co-operate on the global stage (at least grudgingly - it doesn't have to be a friend), but it sees itself as a dominant power who needs to be respected and feared as it's power no longer warrants in reality. The other problem, of course, is Russian internal politics: Putin alienated his original, more liberal voter base, and so to maintain power turned to a more nationalist and xenophobic section of the electorate which he keeps satisfied with crass jingoism, aggression, and playing the strongman.

Russia deserves to be constrained by liberal democracies.

Dreiko:
Russia is not communist any more. They're not a threat outside of the scope of other countries like China or Pakistan (both countries with nukes that we're not super friendly with). This hyper-focus is something done to make people avoid examining the failures of the democrat establishment first and foremost and any other purported concern is gasslighting.

Russia doesn't have a gazillion of its allies surrounding us, we have a gazillion of our allies surrounding them and we treat it as normal. They get to do a couple of things that rub us the wrong way without it being "a new cold war" all of a sudden.

Thanks for finally ending my doubt of your status as a right-winger.

Seriously, Republicans are in power, Trump is super in league with Putin and Russia, but sure 'Blame Democrats'.

Thats a load of bull right there.

Saelune:
Seriously, Republicans are in power, Trump is super in league with Putin and Russia, but sure 'Blame Democrats'.

Are you sure he means the Democratic Party? I took it to mean the current democratic system in the West.

I did mean the democratic party establishment (not the entire party, the progressive wing of it is good) and I am very much pro democracy, though the flavor of it you have in America is a distortion and I can never understand who thought that an electoral college system is anything close to democracy. Our people created democracy and growing up in Greece I am very supportive of a system as close to direct democracy as one can be.

Saelune:

Dreiko:
Russia is not communist any more. They're not a threat outside of the scope of other countries like China or Pakistan (both countries with nukes that we're not super friendly with). This hyper-focus is something done to make people avoid examining the failures of the democrat establishment first and foremost and any other purported concern is gasslighting.

Russia doesn't have a gazillion of its allies surrounding us, we have a gazillion of our allies surrounding them and we treat it as normal. They get to do a couple of things that rub us the wrong way without it being "a new cold war" all of a sudden.

Thanks for finally ending my doubt of your status as a right-winger.

Seriously, Republicans are in power, Trump is super in league with Putin and Russia, but sure 'Blame Democrats'.

Thats a load of bull right there.

I'm a right winger who voted for Hilldog and supported Bernie and is pro-socialism? Alrighty then. Though by this definition everyone who is not an intersectional marxist is a right winger.

edit:

I never took one of these so this felt like an opportune moment:

https://i.imgtc.com/k3Jk89W.png

Looks like I'm smack dab in the anti-authoritarian left to me lol. Maybe the anti-authoritarian bit is making me seem right wing to authoritarians.

Dreiko:
I did mean the democratic party establishment (not the entire party, the progressive wing of it is good) and I am very much pro democracy, though the flavor of it you have in America is a distortion and I can never understand who thought that an electoral college system is anything close to democracy. Our people created democracy and growing up in Greece I am very supportive of a system as close to direct democracy as one can be.

Saelune:

Dreiko:
Russia is not communist any more. They're not a threat outside of the scope of other countries like China or Pakistan (both countries with nukes that we're not super friendly with). This hyper-focus is something done to make people avoid examining the failures of the democrat establishment first and foremost and any other purported concern is gasslighting.

Russia doesn't have a gazillion of its allies surrounding us, we have a gazillion of our allies surrounding them and we treat it as normal. They get to do a couple of things that rub us the wrong way without it being "a new cold war" all of a sudden.

Thanks for finally ending my doubt of your status as a right-winger.

Seriously, Republicans are in power, Trump is super in league with Putin and Russia, but sure 'Blame Democrats'.

Thats a load of bull right there.

I'm a right winger who voted for Hilldog and supported Bernie and is pro-socialism? Alrighty then. Though by this definition everyone who is not an intersectional marxist is a right winger.

edit:

I never took one of these so this felt like an opportune moment:

https://i.imgtc.com/k3Jk89W.png

Looks like I'm smack dab in the anti-authoritarian left to me lol. Maybe the anti-authoritarian bit is making me seem right wing to authoritarians.

Alright, rescinded.

 

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