New Motion Controls Will Extend Hardware Cycle, Say Analysts

New Motion Controls Will Extend Hardware Cycle, Say Analysts

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The new motion control technology recently revealed by Sony and Microsoft will lengthen the lives of current-gen consoles, industry analysts predict.

With some analysts saying that this is the last generation of consoles and some saying it isn't, one thing most people can agree on is that this gen will last longer than any other before it. According to industry analysts, that might end up being a result of the new motion sensing technology unveiled by Microsoft and Sony earlier this week: Project Natal and the "PlayStation Wand."

Instead of releasing completely new hardware, Microsoft and Sony have opted to release potentially game-changing new technology on existing platforms. Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian said that this is a strategy that may prove effective, as the two new devices "may provide the industry with its next growth driver and extend the console cycle."

But which one will do it better? Project Natal or the PS Wand? Cowen Group's Doug Creutz thinks Sony has the edge, saying that "Sony actually did the best job among hardware manufacturers, both in terms of upcoming titles and longer-term strategy."

That's because of the PS Wand's potential for speaking to "core gamers," Creutz thinks. During the demo, Sony suggested the device might be used effectively for first-person shooters and real-time strategy games. "We felt Sony's gamer-oriented motion capture camera was superior to Microsoft's casual-oriented offering," he explained.

[Via Gamasutra]

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You know, this headline says "New Motion Controls Will Extend Hardware Cycle, Say Anal", just a heads up...

I think this will not lengthen the lifespan, you need good core games to keep it going.

sirdanrhodes:
You know, this headline says "New Motion Controls Will Extend Hardware Cycle, Say Anal", just a heads up...

Probably the main reason you checked out the article in the first place, cough cough.

But I agree on the lifespan thing. Games are a pretty important part in it all. Good ones, that is.

I would be amazed if we didn't see an Xbox360 replacement in the next two years, and similar for the Wii. Sony are in 3rd place, and will be scared of losing all the ground they won with the PS1+2 to Microsoft.

If the PS3+Xbox360 motion controls are really up to scratch, then it will make the Wii seem very dated by comparison. Nintendo will need to up the ante in order to compete in the future, and I expect they already have something lined up.

sirdanrhodes:
You know, this headline says "New Motion Controls Will Extend Hardware Cycle, Say Anal", just a heads up...

I think this will not lengthen the lifespan, you need good core games to keep it going.

What are you talking about? This will definitely increase the lifespan of the current generation. We get to see the 360 and PS3 stick around for at LEAST a couple more days as developers try to justify making games to utilize these new controls.

I don't get it. Just because their presentation of Natal targeted casual gamers does not mean it cannot have competitive core applications. Just because they didn't show it being used for a sword, bow, or gun?

SykoSilver:
I don't get it. Just because their presentation of Natal targeted casual gamers does not mean it cannot have competitive core applications. Just because they didn't show it being used for a sword, bow, or gun?

Part of what makes many "core" gaming titles is precision. Do you have the skill to pull off that ridiculous shot? Can you control the units well enough so that they're in the exact right position. Natal really doesn't lend itself well to precision, except perhaps in timing, and standard controllers already handle that well enough.

As for the Sony implementation, I don't think this will extend the console's life-cycle much beyond Sony's original plans, but only because I think Sony built the PS3 with the expectation of it having a ridiculously long life-cycle. Unfortunately, they still have to contend with the PS3 price point issues in this economy, so I'm not willing to call it a hit or a miss.

Kwil:

SykoSilver:
I don't get it. Just because their presentation of Natal targeted casual gamers does not mean it cannot have competitive core applications. Just because they didn't show it being used for a sword, bow, or gun?

Part of what makes many "core" gaming titles is precision. Do you have the skill to pull off that ridiculous shot? Can you control the units well enough so that they're in the exact right position. Natal really doesn't lend itself well to precision, except perhaps in timing, and standard controllers already handle that well enough.

As for the Sony implementation, I don't think this will extend the console's life-cycle much beyond Sony's original plans, but only because I think Sony built the PS3 with the expectation of it having a ridiculously long life-cycle. Unfortunately, they still have to contend with the PS3 price point issues in this economy, so I'm not willing to call it a hit or a miss.

Well, we don't have a good idea of how precise or not precise Natal is. We'll have to see more tech demos. But I think that with Natal's object recognition, it could easily have peripherals which could be used much in the same manner as the PlayStation motion controller.

While Microsoft is all about "removing the controller" right now, I think they've forgotten something--the tactile factor. It's nice to actually hold something when interacting with props, especially when you're trying to slash a sword, shoot a bow, or fire a gun. I think for Natal, even though an accessory may not be required, I might prefer one.

SykoSilver:

Kwil:

SykoSilver:
I don't get it. Just because their presentation of Natal targeted casual gamers does not mean it cannot have competitive core applications. Just because they didn't show it being used for a sword, bow, or gun?

Part of what makes many "core" gaming titles is precision. Do you have the skill to pull off that ridiculous shot? Can you control the units well enough so that they're in the exact right position. Natal really doesn't lend itself well to precision, except perhaps in timing, and standard controllers already handle that well enough.

As for the Sony implementation, I don't think this will extend the console's life-cycle much beyond Sony's original plans, but only because I think Sony built the PS3 with the expectation of it having a ridiculously long life-cycle. Unfortunately, they still have to contend with the PS3 price point issues in this economy, so I'm not willing to call it a hit or a miss.

Well, we don't have a good idea of how precise or not precise Natal is. We'll have to see more tech demos. But I think that with Natal's object recognition, it could easily have peripherals which could be used much in the same manner as the PlayStation motion controller.

If you watch the MS tech demo, you can see that the precision isn't really very good.. especially when they get the guy onscreen with his Mii Avatar. The thing was all over the place. It was a little better in the ricochet game, but that was mostly just moving side to side in front of the camera.

While Microsoft is all about "removing the controller" right now, I think they've forgotten something--the tactile factor. It's nice to actually hold something when interacting with props, especially when you're trying to slash a sword, shoot a bow, or fire a gun. I think for Natal, even though an accessory may not be required, I might prefer one.

I completely agree with this. I also think they may have over-estimated the gaming audiences willingness to jump about. (I know, the same criticism was leveled against the Wiimote, but whole body movement vs. arm movement is, imo, a very different think.)

Who the hell are these analysts that think gamers give a shit about this crap? They're just trying to cash in on Nintendo's thunder. Failgesture is fail.

I still regularly play on a Gamecube and a PS2. I give less than a damn about console generations, except in a few inconvenient cases.

And that's what Natal is? I've seen the name around, I just never felt motivated enough to read any of the threads. I thought it was a game or something.

After seeing the Sony wand I wasn't too interested in it, but watching it again it stuck me:
If incorporated into real games (Oblivion), suddenly skill other than pad mashing comes into play. Sword fights where the best fencer wins, FPS' where the guy with fast real-life reflexes and steady aim wins etc.
I'd be happy to go back to basics just to play games which have real skill in rather than the ageing pad formula, which makes you feel that the only way to win is to just gather weight sat on a couch. Should be really, really good when finally released and will certainly add years onto each console.

NeutralDrow:

And that's what Natal is? I've seen the name around, I just never felt motivated enough to read any of the threads. I thought it was a game or something.

Wow really? Can't even be bothered to look it up in Wikipedia?

I have to say, when I see Natal and Sony's PS3 Wand, I think: "Sega CD" and "Sega 32X".

Mazty:
After seeing the Sony wand I wasn't too interested in it, but watching it again it stuck me:
If incorporated into real games (Oblivion), suddenly skill other than pad mashing comes into play. Sword fights where the best fencer wins, FPS' where the guy with fast real-life reflexes and steady aim wins etc.
I'd be happy to go back to basics just to play games which have real skill in rather than the ageing pad formula, which makes you feel that the only way to win is to just gather weight sat on a couch. Should be really, really good when finally released and will certainly add years onto each console.

The Reality of the Virtual World is nigh! I definately like the approach that Sony had with their Wiimote Wii-poff motion controller, they showed some ways that it could be practically used like in an RTS or an FPS. For Microsoft, the voice and face recognition also seemed pretty cool.

Eldritch Warlord:

NeutralDrow:

And that's what Natal is? I've seen the name around, I just never felt motivated enough to read any of the threads. I thought it was a game or something.

Wow really? Can't even be bothered to look it up in Wikipedia?

Of course not. If I'm not even motivated enough to click a thread on a forum I'm already browsing, why would I do any kind of further research?

Whats the point of this console generation crap except where I have to shove out another $200+ to get anything new/interesting.

Motion sensing controllers will fail to an epic degree. The colossal problem is that there is no resistance. If PS3 dives into motion controls then they had better give me a 5kg aluminium sword to play Final Fantasy with, not a 100 gram stick of cheap plastic.

Good, then they will have even more catching up to do when they try to make the next gen compete against the PC.

Andy_Panthro:
I would be amazed if we didn't see an Xbox360 replacement in the next two years, and similar for the Wii.

The Wii might get some beefier hardware a la DSi or GBA:SP but I doubt it's going to be a brand new console. And I seriously doubt you're going to see a new Xbox less than five years from now. Developement costs for games are already ridiculously high and nobody (console manufactures or game developers) want to start the cycle again just when everybody is hitting their stride.

Andy_Panthro:
If the PS3+Xbox360 motion controls are really up to scratch, then it will make the Wii seem very dated by comparison. Nintendo will need to up the ante in order to compete in the future, and I expect they already have something lined up.

Okay, but you have to consider this. The Wii is not "up to snuff" to the masses of "hardcore" gamers. Its not up to snuff to the majority of the gaming population i.e. the 15-25 male demographic (as a very general majority). However Nintendo have opted to do something different from the other consoles. Instead of making games for "gamers" they've opted to create something fun for everyone. You know what people do to them for that? Condemn them. Really? Condemning them for having a slightly different goal?
The Wii may not be "up to snuff" for gamers. But that's sure as shit not what it was going for in the first place so why do all continue to bitch about it?
Yeah I've sort of switched sides on the whole Wii issue.

Yay. Now us Nintendo fans get to sit back, and watch people berate Sony and Microsoft for not being 'hardcore' enough for the next 3 years, due to them adapting motion control. Fun times ahead.

Other than that, I think its quite smart really. Eliminate the oppositions advantage so people will stop buying a console that isn't yours. I wonder if they will try to market it to gamers, or if we will get lots of cutesy ads coming from the big M+S to appeal to that pesky 'casual' or, 'people who buy lots more games and consoles than gamers' demographic that Nintendo seem to have ensnared.

blackcherry:
Yay. Now us Nintendo fans get to sit back, and watch people berate Sony and Microsoft for not being 'hardcore' enough for the next 3 years, due to them adapting motion control. Fun times ahead.

Other than that, I think its quite smart really. Eliminate the oppositions advantage so people will stop buying a console that isn't yours. I wonder if they will try to market it to gamers, or if we will get lots of cutesy ads coming from the big M+S to appeal to that pesky 'casual' or, 'people who buy lots more games and consoles than gamers' demographic that Nintendo seem to have ensnared.

See the problem with the Wiimote (and this is as a Wii owner and someone who knows it got fixed with Motion Plus) was that stupid tiny sensor bar in addition to not being as... well...

It didn't recognize motions very well.

PS Wand shows 1-1 tracking and that impressed me. I still haven't checked out Natel yet.
I just wanna play NMH 2 with the Motion Plus.

DUAL WEILDING BEAM KATANA!

*sigh* I saw this coming. Honestly, Sony and MS can't think of things for themselves! If we are to have varied gameplay, manufacturers can't just go copying each other. Motion controllers are Nintendo's thing; if people want motion-control, they probably already have a Wii.

Sony and MS should stick to what they do - making balls-out conventional shiny games.

Oh god. I just realised that this will create a whole new fanboy argument for months to come!

[switches off internet. puts head under rock.]

To be honest, I hope that the NATAL DOES get some 'Core' Games. I wanna play an RTS like I'm the guy out of Minority Report.

as the two new devices "may provide the industry with its next growth driver and extend the console cycle."

That's because of the PS Wand's potential for speaking to "core gamers,"

Facepalm. The core market is called that because it's already being served by the incumbent(s). Appealing to it cannot grow the market as the core market is already on board. It's preaching to the choir, not gonna convert new people. This "it'll succeed because of the core" talk sounds like media pandering, telling people what they want to hear rather than what makes any sense.

What matters about success and failure is not the technology. It's the game lineup. What games do Sony and MS have to back their controller up? When are they going to be playable? The Wii Motion Plus already has five games listed for it, four of which are coming within the next month or so. Sony and MS presented maybes, Nintendo presented reality. Of course maybes will be more impressive than facts because they are less constrained by reality.

Strange, I thought this console generation was gonna last longer because its now gotten so expensive Sony and MS need longer to get their money back on their investments.

More on the point though I just don't see how the motion controls will affect the 360 or PS3 that much. Core gamers, I suspect, will be suspicious of them after seeing how badly many developers have utilized the Wii motion controls, casual gamers will wonder why they need to buy another console that just does the same thing as the Wii (minus the established motion control game catalogue) and the inevitable deluge of shovelware, likely ported from the Wii, will depress everyone.

Basically, I just can't see the new motion controls making that much difference to the install base of the machines. I could be wrong but somehow suspect that I won't be.

Fightgarr:

Okay, but you have to consider this. The Wii is not "up to snuff" to the masses of "hardcore" gamers. Its not up to snuff to the majority of the gaming population i.e. the 15-25 male demographic (as a very general majority). However Nintendo have opted to do something different from the other consoles. Instead of making games for "gamers" they've opted to create something fun for everyone. You know what people do to them for that? Condemn them. Really? Condemning them for having a slightly different goal?
The Wii may not be "up to snuff" for gamers. But that's sure as shit not what it was going for in the first place so why do all continue to bitch about it?
Yeah I've sort of switched sides on the whole Wii issue.

My point (and perhaps I wasn't clear enough) is that MS and Sony have made motion controllers to rival the Wii, so Nintendo will have to offer people a reason to stay with them. Currently, they have a large install base, and the MotionPlus coming out. But they lack in other areas, and so if they don't replace the Wii in the next couple of years, they may find they lose ground in the long term.

I'm certainly not condemning the Wii, it was a brilliant idea and has been very successful. However you can't stand still and expect the money to keep coming in, because MS and Sony are desperate to steal their customers.

Andy_Panthro:
My point (and perhaps I wasn't clear enough) is that MS and Sony have made motion controllers to rival the Wii, so Nintendo will have to offer people a reason to stay with them. Currently, they have a large install base, and the MotionPlus coming out. But they lack in other areas, and so if they don't replace the Wii in the next couple of years, they may find they lose ground in the long term.

I'm certainly not condemning the Wii, it was a brilliant idea and has been very successful. However you can't stand still and expect the money to keep coming in, because MS and Sony are desperate to steal their customers.

My point (perhaps I wasn't being clear) is that Sony and Microsoft have a completely different target demographic than Nintendo. Its not really a competition in that sense for Nintendo.
Obviously there's competition, but Nintendo isn't really worrying at this point.

Andy_Panthro:

I'm certainly not condemning the Wii, it was a brilliant idea and has been very successful. However you can't stand still and expect the money to keep coming in, because MS and Sony are desperate to steal their customers.

I don't really think so. On the one hand, we've got companies known for having games like Halo, COD4, Metal Gear Solid, GTA etc. on their consoles. Even if the average nongamer doesn't know anything about these games, they know in general terms that the PS360 largely cater to people who like to blow things up. These companies now introduce motion controls, which (I'm willing to bet) these people will think are going to be used in those same genres (the "blowing stuff up" genre). On the other hand, we've got a company whose console is very well-established in terms of user-friendliness, has a very large library of games known to be family-friendly, and is cheap.

I'm not saying that some people won't move over or opt for a PS360 in lieu of a Wii, but those people will not make a significant difference in terms of sales. Also not saying that Nintendo can afford to rest on their laurels. But I don't think these new developments will pose that much of a threat to Nintendo's install base or future sales.

for all the people who think natel sucks because theres no controller, well just grab a steering wheel or grab an authentic heavy sword or a reiistic toy gun, nomatter what it would be better then paying for all those different wiimotes and hey who would want the remote through ur 52 inch plasma when ur boxing.

 

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