Modern Warfare 2 Predicted to Sell 11 Million Copies in 2009

Modern Warfare 2 Predicted to Sell 11 Million Copies in 2009

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Mike Hickey of Janco Partners predicts that Modern Warfare 2 will sell over 11 million units in 2009, quite likely making it the biggest videogame launch of the year.

Released in 2007, Infinity Ward's Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare was a huge hit both critically and commercially, becoming the top-selling game of the year despite being released in November and breaking the 13 million unit sales mark in May of 2009. In light of that you may wonder why guys like industry analyst Mike Hickey get paid to make the bold prediction that the sequel, Modern Warfare 2, will probably be a pretty big seller too, but let's give him credit for going out on a limb far enough to attach a specific sales number to the game months before it's actually released.

Hickey predicted that Modern Warfare 2 will put out 11.1 million units by the end of 2009, surpassing the mark set by its predecessor and generating $803 million in revenue. "Given our CY09 sell through estimates for Modern Warfare 2, it's possible that the game could be one of the largest entertainment releases of all time," he said.

"If you assume similar channel unit sales velocity as GTA IV, the game could potentially sell through 7.8 million units globally with an estimated retail value of more than $569 million in the first week," he said. "Continuing the same channel logic, it's possible the game could sell through to consumers' 4.6 million units globally with an estimated retail value of more than $338 million in the first day."

Hickey's comments will no doubt please Activision Brand Manager Simon Wells, who said in April that Activision wanted Modern Warfare 2 to be the "biggest selling videogame of all time."

Source: Edge

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How can they be so sure?

And how can they be so cocky.. I mean you're sad if you shout all around that your game is going to be the best seller ever..

headshotcatcher:
How can they be so sure?

And how can they be so cocky.. I mean you're sad if you shout all around that your game is going to be the best seller ever..

Uhh do you remember how the first one sold? THats probably what their basing their estimates on. Besides its coming out on 3 platforms.

Well I just hope that infinity ward waits until the game is released before they buy all their employees new porsches.

bue519:

headshotcatcher:
How can they be so sure?

And how can they be so cocky.. I mean you're sad if you shout all around that your game is going to be the best seller ever..

Uhh do you remember how the first one sold? THats probably what their basing their estimates on. Besides its coming out on 3 platforms.

Deus Ex 1 sold well..

headshotcatcher:
How can they be so sure?

And how can they be so cocky.. I mean you're sad if you shout all around that your game is going to be the best seller ever..

That's what I thought. Even if Modern Warfare sold well, predicting 11 million units sold around a recession is a bit too cocky.

Is it wrong to desperately want this game to bomb?

It's hard to swallow all the predictions of 'biggest release ever' without getting just a little cynical about it. With any luck Infinity Ward won't have forgotten to make a good game.

Well... I'll be accountable for about , let me just do the maths:

*2... /6... find the hypotenuse of that... +12... find the square root of pi and multiple it by all its prime factors... and then hit it with a couple of isosceles angles..

And Boom! I have my number, 1.

I think he's being a realist, personally.

headshotcatcher:

bue519:

headshotcatcher:
How can they be so sure?

And how can they be so cocky.. I mean you're sad if you shout all around that your game is going to be the best seller ever..

Uhh do you remember how the first one sold? THats probably what their basing their estimates on. Besides its coming out on 3 platforms.

Deus Ex 1 sold well..

Yeah but from the gameplay it doesn't look like the second one will suck. And your missing my point. The fact that its coming out on so many platforms makes it much easier for the game to sell 11 million copies. If it was an exclusive then yes I would agree with you.

tendo82:
I think he's being a realist, personally.

Based on what Tendo? The game has less than 60 days from launch in which to sell more copies than most games ever sell over their whole lifecycle. We all know what bullshit and how useless statistics are, predictions are even more worthless. Assuming it even launches on time, a simple "1" where a "0" should be, and the game has the same launch fiasco as Mass Effect, what with the totally not working and all that. Or let us not forget Hellgate London, the Diablo successor that was going to dominate PC gaming for years to come. Ms Cleo should have seen that flop coming. Or Spore, a game so riddled with DRM and bugs that YEARS of hype couldn't overcome its flaws.

If any game is going to be the #1 seller of 09, it's "The Sims 3". The Sims sells like redbull-laced cocaine that comes with a free Japanese slave girl to snort it off the back of, and has ZERO competition in its genre. Modern Warfare 2 is competing against every FPS including Battlefield Heroes, 1943, and the upcoming possibilities of Bad Company 2 and BF3.

headshotcatcher:

And how can they be so cocky.. I mean you're sad if you shout all around that your game is going to be the best seller ever..

Only the Brand Manager said that, spouting hyperbole is their job. I'm sure the devs have slightly less lofty aims. 11.1m though? Surely not, unless there's a price cut or more content released just before Christmas. Then, maybe.

...which means another two years of the people I know playing that game and only that game.

I expected this to sell around say... 9 or 10 million by the end of '09.

Remember, the sequel always does better for some reason.

Which is why we keep seeing so many.

Not that this is a bad game, or that it won't sell but seriously man? 11.1 Million? How far up his ass did he need to reach to pull that number? I am sure it will sell very well. But MW1 just now surpassed 13 million. So I think these numbers are a wee it optimistic.

"Best selling game of all time" riiiggghhhhtttt...

Kirosilence:
Not that this is a bad game, or that it won't sell but seriously man? 11.1 Million? How far up his ass did he need to reach to pull that number?

My guess is somewhere between "hand-in-stomach" and "There's a Fist in my throat".

did they say the first game sold 13 mil? then 11 mil is an easy target.

I don't doubt it. I think it will surpass the predicted sales, in fact.

COD4 has sold around 13 million since it's been out. And it hit 10 million copies around April or May of last year, it think.

dekkarax:
...which means another two years of the people I know playing that game and only that game.

I know what you mean. All that hard work so you can get a shiny badge and get the pleasure of doing it all over again. 11m is way too cocky... But then again it's already been hyped to the point that people have started worshipping it.

They want this to be the best selling game of all time....but they're predicting 11.1 million games sold across 3 platforms total by the end of 2009?

Halo 3 sold almost 12 million....by the end of the first two months. On one platform. And I believe total Halo 3 sales are now what, at 17+ million?

And further still Halo 3 had 1.5x as many pre-orders as MW2 does two months out from its release, but MW2 only has a month to go and isn't even there yet.

who cares if its cocky, usually when a game developer predicts something their usually wrong.

Paragon Fury:
They want this to be the best selling game of all time....but they're predicting 11.1 million games sold across 3 platforms total by the end of 2009?

Halo 3 sold almost 12 million....by the end of the first two months. On one platform. And I believe total Halo 3 sales are now what, at 17+ million?

And further still Halo 3 had 1.5x as many pre-orders as MW2 does two months out from its release, but MW2 only has a month to go and isn't even there yet.

If anything I think that adds legitimacy to their prediction. If Halo 3 could sell that many, I have no doubt MW2 can do the same, provided they don't shit the bed somehow... which is always a distinct possibility.

Paragon Fury:

Halo 3 sold almost 12 million....by the end of the first two months.

Source please. The latest figures I have are 8.1~ million by January 2008 which was 3/4 months after release.

VG Charts says: Halo3: 10.26 millions / CoD4 360: 7.83 millions /CoD4 PS3: 4.66 millions

I doubt it can sell 10 mil. before January, no chance. They should be less cocky and take what they can get, who knows it might fail, but im pretty sure a lot of people will buy it, so lets say about 5 million at most

It may be the biggest game of the year, but see if I give a rats ass! *goes back to Scribblenauts*

It WILL sell that many copies, because it's THAT GOOD. And if it DOESN'T, then it's because all you people are DIRTY DIRTY PIRATES.

[/publisher logic]

What is 11.1 million minus 1?

...I won't be buying it.

God damn 11 million by the end of the year! That's 1 copy for every person in Cuba... fuck.

 

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