Analysts Predict PS3 Holiday Dominance

Analysts Predict PS3 Holiday Dominance

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Industry analysts Michael Pachter and Jesse Divnich can agree on one thing: The PS3's Slim redesign and its new slim price tag mean that Sony's console is headed for victory this holiday season.

After month after month of decline in the industry, NPD's numbers for September - due out next week - are likely to finally be a spot of hope for gamers and game makers alike. In anticipation of the NPD numbers, two analysts - Wedbush Morgan's ubiquitous Michael Pachter and EEDAR's slightly less ubiquitous Jesse Divnich - issued their predictions, and both reports had a few things in common.

Both reports agree that the industry will be seeing growth, though the IndustryGamers article doesn't quite clarify whether the numbers mentioned are year-on-year increases (from last September) or monthly increases (from August). Either way, Divnich expects software salves of $715 million (16% increase), while Pachter is a bit more optimistic, listing his prediction of $750 million (21% increase).

While the mighty DS will still lead in terms of hardware sales, both Divnich and Pachter think that - for the first time since it launched in late 2006 - the PS3 will lead the console war. "Divnich sees PS3 selling 400,000 units compared to 375,000 for Wii and 370,000 for Xbox 360, while Pachter sees PS3 selling 410,000 versus 390,000 for Wii and 350,000 for Xbox 360." Quoth Pachter:

"We believe that the recent round of price cuts may benefit the PS3 the most in coming months, given that unit sales last year were only 1.5 million for the September - December 2008 period. The Xbox 360 has outsold the PS3 for the past 13 months, likely due to a higher perceived value proposition (the Xbox 360 "core" model was priced $100 lower than the PS3). We think that the PS3 will outsell the Xbox 360 in September, and may continue to do so for the rest of the year,"

While Pachter thinks that Microsoft has more room to go for a second price cut, he predicts that the holiday season will see a more feature-laden Xbox 360 (with 250GB hard drive like that seen in the Modern Warfare 2 bundle) introduced at $299 to try and increase the perceived value of the product compared to the competition.

"Microsoft will cut price only if it begins to lose significant market share to Sony," predicted Pachter.

The PS3 may sell well, but its games, on the other hand? That's another story altogether.

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I wish PS3 would win because of the features it offers rather than just a "Stylish" redesign and price cut.

I bought the old, ugly and expensive PS3 at launch and Sony needs to take a leaf out of Microsoft's book and offer more of and more significant online features, and no, Home does not count.

I'm talking more quality PSN games to counter Microsoft's now absolutely gargantuan XBLA library

What about Video, Music, pictures and in fact any media for PSN Europe users to use at all!

Why is all the content on PSN still partitioned by region where Europe gets virtually nothing and what we do get we get shafted on the price?

_______

Uncharted 2's Beta was amazing, both graphically and in terms of gameplay but that just tides me over for now, why is it that good games like this for the PS3 some so incredibly few and far between?

i want Sony to win, but they need to step their game up three notches, give us some decent DLC in Europe and give us a PS2 backwards compatibility patch. or else!

randomrob:
i want Sony to win, but they need to step their game up three notches, give us some decent DLC in Europe and give us a PS2 backwards compatibility patch. or else!

It can't be patched now they removed the chip that allows the BC.

I'm not sure if the PS3 will come out on top, but I don't think it'll do to badly.

I know I'm getting one. ^_^

Treblaine:
I wish PS3 would win because of the features it offers rather than just a "Stylish" redesign and price cut.

I bought the old, ugly and expensive PS3 at launch and Sony needs to take a leaf out of Microsoft's book and offer more of and more significant online features, and no, Home does not count.

I'm talking more quality PSN games to counter Microsoft's now absolutely gargantuan XBLA library

What about Video, Music, pictures and in fact any media for PSN Europe users to use at all!

Why is all the content on PSN still partitioned by region where Europe gets virtually nothing and what we do get we get shafted on the price?

_______

Uncharted 2's Beta was amazing, both graphically and in terms of gameplay but that just tides me over for now, why is it that good games like this for the PS3 some so incredibly few and far between?

The problem with Sony is that it's various offices around the world aren't that well in contact with each other. That's why so much information gets leaked, and why there's such a difference in pss content. Right now however, I'm just glad Sony has introduced a pre paid system in Europe for all of us who are credit card-less.

Naturalized:

randomrob:
i want Sony to win, but they need to step their game up three notches, give us some decent DLC in Europe and give us a PS2 backwards compatibility patch. or else!

It can't be patched now they removed the chip that allows the BC.

It's called software emulation, every single PS3 sold in Europe that had Backwards-compatibility used that since it did not have the "emotion-chip" from the PS2.

Sony removed BC for some other strange and nonsensical reason.

Ultimately it's pretty much up to Microsoft right now to decide if they want the PS3 to outsell the 360.

I say that because Sony has pretty much played all their cards for the year. The pricecut was pretty much their final attack. They can't really afford to do much else at the moment. Microsoft however, still has room to attack. Another 360 price drop before the holidays would drastically reduce Sony's chances of coming out on top. Or hell they could just slap a hard drive on their Arcade model. Problem is, all of these attacks would cut into their profits.

It will be interesting to see if Microsoft takes the more profitable route or the attack route.

PS3 dominance is like the end of the world.

It's been predicted to happen many times, but those who predict it keep letting us down.

To be honest, the thought that PS3 sales will dramatically increase is a no-brainer, especially since the console's price is now lower. Whether or not it will outsell the others is up to chance, really.

I really, really want a PS3, but at the same time want PS2 BC to be reinstated before I make my purchase. I'd be willing to drop up to $40 extra for that feature alone.

I disagree I think the Wii is probably going to own face this season. Now don't get me wrong, I don't want a toy to win a Console fight, but lets be honest. When people see the 200 price tag on the Wii they'll think. "Meh it's only 200 bucks might as well get it.

I would like to see PS3 do well simply to hold onto the companies and pull exclusive DLC away from Xbox.

It better. I'm sick of Microsoft holding the only respectable console with significant sales. Even though in the end I don't care, as I hate consoles anyway.

Predictions are fun. And analysts are pretty funny too.

well... this is a no brainer. Every one already owns the other two consoles so picking up a PS3 is actually on my to-do list.

In the end, the 360 and ps3 will both have millions of consoles in consumer hands, so devs/pubs are going to earn more money.

More money leads to better games (hopefully).

Darrkon Fearlock:
I disagree I think the Wii is probably going to own face this season. Now don't get me wrong, I don't want a toy to win a Console fight, but lets be honest. When people see the 200 price tag on the Wii they'll think. "Meh it's only 200 bucks might as well get it.

You mean the way it's been owning face for the fast several years. Regardless of what anyone wants to happen, Patcher gets his "data" mainly from forums, so he's alost always either stating obvious or completely wrong. Based on his track record, you're better off betting against him. Sucks for PS fans, I guess.

Either way, it will be a good season to be a gamer. Ps3 gamers will have alot to talk about. That's for sure.

I can't say anything about the numbers, but I do believe they are right. The Wii's charismatic appeal to the mainstream has lost some of its effect, so it will take a hit in sales numbers. Xbox hasn't changed at all in its run, and it had a nice varied price, so those that really wanted one would have one by now, more likely than not. But the PS3 has been just a bit too expensive to hit the mass market, being a pretty big investment at its $450 price just for the console and one game. That it dropped its price to what is really a reasonable price for everything that it offers stands out as a great marketing decision. Between the upcoming titles and the price drop...

Yeah, I see the PS3 taking the storm this winter.

I think it seems quite likely that they will be ahead for winter. I'm not sure about them dominating, but ahead? Sure. I'm surprised Pachter is on top of his stuff now, he was on the money with the price cut from all three consoles.

Joeshie:
Ultimately it's pretty much up to Microsoft right now to decide if they want the PS3 to outsell the 360.

I say that because Sony has pretty much played all their cards for the year. The pricecut was pretty much their final attack. They can't really afford to do much else at the moment. Microsoft however, still has room to attack. Another 360 price drop before the holidays would drastically reduce Sony's chances of coming out on top. Or hell they could just slap a hard drive on their Arcade model. Problem is, all of these attacks would cut into their profits.

It will be interesting to see if Microsoft takes the more profitable route or the attack route.

Microsoft don't have any more cards to deal, to be honest. Every console has cut their price, and none of them have anything that will spike sales it seems. There's only so much one could drop the price before it reeks of desperation, let alone cutting into profits.

As long as i get the games i want and like i dont care. The PSN Library is fine. Region is States Alone. So really its not europe alone in this.

I've had my PS3 for ever... and I already have a Wii...

This holiday season I'm just getting a boardgame. Screw the console wars and all you fanboys, I'm keeping gaming old school this season!

Oh snap :P

Well, I had to wait in line at my local games shop yesterday lunchtime because not one, but 2 guys were purchasing new PS3 slims, and a couple of games each.

It doesn't sound like a big deal, but it was really telling for me. I rekon they are going to sell a massive stack of PS3's between now and xmas.

CantFaketheFunk:
The PS3 may sell well, but its games, on the other hand? That's another story altogether.

Apropos of what now? Was the story so positive that we needed the backhand to tone stuff down?

SaintWaldo:

CantFaketheFunk:
The PS3 may sell well, but its games, on the other hand? That's another story altogether.

Apropos of what now? Was the story so positive that we needed the backhand to tone stuff down?

It wouldn't be the Escapist if it wasn't.

i think it will do well and probly better than anyone will think

Analysts predict a lot of things. It may be that this prediction will turn out to be true, but at the end of the day, I'm glad I still chose the 360. It was my favorite choice at the time and it still is.

I own all 3 consoles (smug!) thanks to canny use of staff discounts on secondhand machines where I work so quite frankly I dont care who "wins" the console war, though quite frankly I hope no one does. Competition is good for us gamers it means neither company can rest on their laurels and take the consumer for granted which sony did with the success of ps2 and nintendo have been doing with the success of wii. I'm always slighty disturbed by zelous support of sony/xb360/nintendo brands as at the end of the day the only thing any of them want is your cash in their pockets, much better to show fanboyism to quality games which is why I have no problems cheering on god of war/halo/gears of war/uncharted/valkyria chronicals ect ect (no killzone though, have been playing that to death and sorry fanboys but beneath it's pretty surface its a pretty mediocre game)

I still haven't decided whether to buy one or not.

This would be a good time to buy shares in sony.

ChromeAlchemist:
Microsoft don't have any more cards to deal, to be honest. Every console has cut their price, and none of them have anything that will spike sales it seems. There's only so much one could drop the price before it reeks of desperation, let alone cutting into profits.

Hardly. If they dropped the price of the Elite to $25 dollars, you don't think that would cause a massive spike in sales? Obviously that's a extreme example, but price drops can help obviously.

Like I said, if they give the arcade a harddrive, it would essentially have been a roundabout way of cutting the price of the Pro by $100. And we all know how well the Pro sold against the PS3 when it was $100 dollars lower. It consistently beat out the PS3.

Likewise, they could give a free game (that was awesome) and wireless dongle with the Elite model and it would be a better deal than the PS3. Of course they don't want to do that because it would eat into profits. But at this point, the 360 division is MUCH more profitable than the PS3 division so they could do it if they wanted.

 

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