Analyst Says DJ Hero Demand "Well Below" Expectations

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Analyst Says DJ Hero Demand "Well Below" Expectations

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Activision may be trying to temper expectations for DJ Hero but analyst Doug Creutz says the game will probably still fall well below those unusually modest predictions.

Despite huge amounts of pre-release hype, RedOctane co-founder Kai Huang said over the weekend that he didn't expect the upcoming DJ Hero to make a fast break out of the gate. Rather than looking for big sales at launch followed by a major drop-off, Huang said Activision believed the game would build up momentum over time as people become more familiar with what a DJ game is.

But according to Cowen & Co. analyst Doug Creutz, Activision's sights may still be set too high. "On DJ Hero, despite some recent positive comments from company management about pre-orders, we remain very cautious about the title's prospects at launch," Creutz said in an investor's note. "A survey of online retailers indicates a demand profile that is well below what we would have expected to see just a few days before launch for a title that was destined to be a big (or even modest) success."

The high price of peripheral-bundled music games will put a lot of gamers off during times of recession, Creutz said, while the "buzz" surrounding franchises like Guitar Hero has also faded. As a result, he has dramatically cut his predictions for DJ Hero sales over the final three months of the year from 1.6 million units in the U.S. to only 600,000, while he expects full-year sales to reach 950,000 units rather than his initial estimate of 2.5 million.

While Creutz thinks that DJ Hero will be a much slower starter than Activision admits, he agrees that it will likely become an important fixture in the publisher's stable. "We still believe that DJ Hero will be an important part of Activision Blizzard's music franchise strategy, but we think it may take a few versions of the game for it to reach its full market potential (similar to the original Guitar Hero)," he noted. And it's not just DJ Hero that's suffering: After a rough September, Creutz cut his 2009 combined sales estimate for DJ Hero, Guitar Hero and Band Hero by more than half, from $408 million to $199 million.

Source: GamesIndustry

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Just because you tack Hero onto the title doesn't mean it will sell any kind of numbers...I'm sorry, Band Hero is just GH5 with more child friendly songs, that's just not cool. Everything they are doing with the GH franchise is just running it straight in to the ground without remorse for how well it will actually sell.

If they were smart and wanting to make more money, they'd be better off backing of the actual releases and just sticking to the DLC market, like Harmonix does, just make the game infinitely expandable. Just because you can continue to make games every 6 months doesn't mean you should, support what you have and stop charging full price for what really is an overglorified expansion.

Kinda derailed myself for a minute there, DJ Hero looked like a great way to expand the music genre but it doesn't have the appeal to anyone but hardcore club goers regardless of the popularity of the artists.

I just dont see how you could go very far at this. "Yaay, i wanta live the life of being a DJ at rich peoples parties and beat down clubs! Thats the life for me!"

Also the chick in the picture up there looks like a vampire.

I think guitar hero has MUCH more broad appeal then DJ hero. So that's why I think it flopped. They expected the same audience for both games

Kuchinawa212:
I think guitar hero has MUCH more broad appeal then DJ hero. So that's why I think it flopped. They expected the same audience for both games

It fails in every sense. Guitar Hero started off excellent. Everyone wants to imagine being a rock star at some point in their life. The Rock Band pwn'd them with a full band release and continuously downloadable content. Guitar Hero tossed out World Tour to compete and honestly it's not nearly as good as RB2. Then they forget that RB exposed people to BANDS playing, have a few friends over and have some fun....so they release DJ Hero, a game where at most 2 people can play (and only on certain songs that allow for guitar).

Don't even get me started on Band Hero. Oh I just can't wait to play Taylor Swift songs and ohmigawd they have the Spice Girls! *rolls my eyes*

I like the idea of DJ Hero and will be getting it.
I'm not a hardcore techno, mixmaster, or clubing fan, but I like DJ Hero's concept and music. I don't mind it at all, I'll get it regardless of the names I'll be called.

VanityGirl:
I like the idea of DJ Hero and will be getting it.
I'm not a hardcore techno, mixmaster, or clubing fan, but I like DJ Hero's concept and music. I don't mind it at all, I'll get it regardless of the names I'll be called.

Ok Denise. If you dig it, get it. No problem at all. I just think the $100+ to get it is incredibly high.

Cliff_m85:

Don't even get me started on Band Hero. Oh I just can't wait to play Taylor Swift songs and ohmigawd they have the Spice Girls! *rolls my eyes*

Wait. Why do they think it's a good idea to appeal to only a small community in the whole realm of music? Is that the new strategy now? Make games for only the 250 people that want it?

Ok, who managed to thing that any game called DJ Hero, could possably be any good in the first place?

Kuchinawa212:

Cliff_m85:

Don't even get me started on Band Hero. Oh I just can't wait to play Taylor Swift songs and ohmigawd they have the Spice Girls! *rolls my eyes*

Wait. Why do they think it's a good idea to appeal to only a small community in the whole realm of music? Is that the new strategy now? Make games for only the 250 people that want it?

Rolling eyes = sarcasm.

I lost interest in the (insert random instrument here) Hero franchise after my first guitar heo game (#3), it just doesn't appeal to me.

Well, what do you expect? People don't want to play with shit.

Even if I was interested in the game the price is way to high for a poor graduate student, I.E me.

Cliff_m85:

Ok Denise. If you dig it, get it. No problem at all. I just think the $100+ to get it is incredibly high.

Well, since I'll be getting a turntable, the stand and the game, I don't mind too much. Better for me to buy things that function, than spend $80 for shitty nightvisions goggles that come with a game. :)
Or a helmet that is two sizes too small. :)

Speaking as a DJ in real life, I can honestly say that this game is in no way representative of spinning in real life. Whereas GH/Rock Band have some similarities to the activity they are simulating, DJ Hero only represents ONE aspect of DJ'ing: And that's the mash-up. I could go in to a more deep comparison, but none of you want to read that.

Final verdict: This game should have never been made!

I couldn't believe it when I saw the initial announcements for this game. It's a game where you emulate the activity most useless, douchey people in the world. I've known four people who liked to "spin" in my lifetime. They were all completely empty-headed morons whose sole aspiration in life was to continue to use my air.

It's a sad statement when the entertainment industry doesn't even think we want to fantasize about playing music anymore. They think we want to fantasize about being a music presenter. Up next? We're going for the moviegoing crowd. We give you Projectionist Hero!

Setting aside the fact that the premise of this game is ridiculous, is the gaming crowd really the same as the dance club crowd? Really?

The popularity/lack thereof of certain movies and games recently has really made me lose faith in the American populace. Maybe this game becoming the complete failure it deserves to be can restore a little bit of that.

VanityGirl:

Cliff_m85:

Ok Denise. If you dig it, get it. No problem at all. I just think the $100+ to get it is incredibly high.

Well, since I'll be getting a turntable, the stand and the game, I don't mind too much. Better for me to buy things that function, than spend $80 for shitty nightvisions goggles that come with a game. :)
Or a helmet that is two sizes too small. :)

I'd completely agree with that, but I just don't dig getting one instrument for that wad of cash when I can throw down $100 and get a microphone, guitar, and drug set (as well as the game). Maybe if they decided to be express the true nature of club music and include a bag of ecstacy with each bundle as well as light sticks. :p

remember when rosenwieg said "the genre's not saturated"? i wonder what he's thinking about now

Cliff_m85:

I'd completely agree with that, but I just don't dig getting one instrument for that wad of cash when I can throw down $100 and get a microphone, guitar, and drug set (as well as the game). Maybe if they decided to be express the true nature of club music and include a bag of ecstacy with each bundle as well as light sticks. :p

I guess, but wasn't Rock Band's full set more than $100? I'm curious because I thought it was. (I mean at release, not now, it's had a price drop since a year ago.)
But I guess to each his own. I'm glad they put Justice in there, I really like their music. If you don't know who Justice is, think of the Assassin's Creed II trailer. Yep, that was them.

Take a moment and think of how many people you know that can play guitar or want to learn to play guitar...

Now I want you to take a moment to think of how many people you know that can scratch or want to learn to scratch...

I mean seriously. What did they expect?

mokes310:
Speaking as a DJ in real life, I can honestly say that this game is in no way representative of spinning in real life. Whereas GH/Rock Band have some similarities to the activity they are simulating, DJ Hero only represents ONE aspect of DJ'ing: And that's the mash-up. I could go in to a more deep comparison, but none of you want to read that.

Final verdict: This game should have never been made!

Honestly, I am interested in reading that. I've watched what videos I can find of the peripheral in use and I just can't figure out the control scheme. I'm not planning on buying this game, but if I was I'd be worried that it would take me ages to get the hang of playing it even on easy (this coming from someone who is self-taught on bass, guitar, piano, and went conservatory to study drums.)

Maybe you could make a new thread and share your thoughts. There's been plenty of healthy debate in the past over whether Guitar Hero is an accurate representation of real guitar playing, what better time than now to get the ball rolling with DJ Hero!

Proteus214:
Take a moment and think of how many people you know that can play guitar or want to learn to play guitar...

Now I want you to take a moment to think of how many people you know that can scratch or want to learn to scratch...

I mean seriously. What did they expect?

I can play guitar, and I would love to learn how to scratch. On topic though, I can play guitar and had a great time playing guitar hero even though it's completely different. I wish I could scratch, but I have no desire to role-play as a DJ.

Another over priced Simon game.

VanityGirl:

Cliff_m85:

I'd completely agree with that, but I just don't dig getting one instrument for that wad of cash when I can throw down $100 and get a microphone, guitar, and drug set (as well as the game). Maybe if they decided to be express the true nature of club music and include a bag of ecstacy with each bundle as well as light sticks. :p

I guess, but wasn't Rock Band's full set more than $100? I'm curious because I thought it was. (I mean at release, not now, it's had a price drop since a year ago.)
But I guess to each his own. I'm glad they put Justice in there, I really like their music. If you don't know who Justice is, think of the Assassin's Creed II trailer. Yep, that was them.

I think Rock Band 2's was $125 at release for me. But that included enough instruments to have a party. If DJ hero allowed for multi-play type gaming I think it'd do much better....or the ecstacy. Either or.

Gee, Bobby Kotick and Activision drove the music genre into the ground. who could have seen this coming? I reiterate my earlier prediction that Activision will be in deep financial trouble 5 years from now.

This is not going to sell well at all. Way too expensive.

I might get it because I am really getting into hip hop and rap, but I think they might be right. I have no idea where on earth they got the numbers from though

Cliff_m85:

VanityGirl:

Cliff_m85:

Ok Denise. If you dig it, get it. No problem at all. I just think the $100+ to get it is incredibly high.

Well, since I'll be getting a turntable, the stand and the game, I don't mind too much. Better for me to buy things that function, than spend $80 for shitty nightvisions goggles that come with a game. :)
Or a helmet that is two sizes too small. :)

I'd completely agree with that, but I just don't dig getting one instrument for that wad of cash when I can throw down $100 and get a microphone, guitar, and drug set (as well as the game). Maybe if they decided to be express the true nature of club music and include a bag of ecstacy with each bundle as well as light sticks. :p

Damn they're including heroin with the games now. They're really going all out with simulating a rockstar experience.

(I know it's a typo but I thought it was funny) :p

I laugh at all of the sheep who play these games.
Its the same overused DDR crap, for 100 bucks a pop.

Okay, show of hands for who saw this coming? True you get great music, but something just tells me this won't be as fun as Guitar Hero, and even further from the real deal than GH.

Malygris:
...Huang said Activision believed the game would build up momentum over time as people become more familiar with what Activision wants players to think what a DJ game is.

Added a bit of cyncism to that quote, tho I doubt its far off the mark. I dare other publishers to NOT follow this mold.

Cliff_m85:
I'd completely agree with that, but I just don't dig getting one instrument for that wad of cash when I can throw down $100 and get a microphone, guitar, and drug set (as well as the game). Maybe if they decided to be express the true nature of club music and include a bag of ecstacy with each bundle as well as light sticks. :p

One may question the legality of such an accessory, but a drug set with Rock Band might just boost sales, and fit the mythos. And 1 in every 100 includes a Roadie!

It's probably well known that I hate DJ Hero with a freaking passion.

At least the company is coming to terms with how bad this is probably going to flop.

samsonguy920:
One may question the legality of such an accessory, but a drug set with Rock Band might just boost sales, and fit the mythos. And 1 in every 100 includes a Roadie!

That's the sort of thing you'd probably want to get at launch, before all the roadies suffocate in the boxes. Which I guess might not be a bad marketing strategy to increase realease day sales; "For every game that doesn't get sold at launch, a roadie dies. Can you live with that? Do you want it on your conscience? No, I didn't think so; now go buy Guitar Hero!" Although, I guess that it is a pretty bad marketing strategy in that a lot of the people involved would probably go to jail for it.

On a more serious note, I think it's biggest problem will be a general fatigue with regards to rhythm games among the general populace; I've never actually owned one of the Hero or Band games and I'm already exhausted by the sheer number of them. I guess people who like the kind of music DJ Hero has, or think that DJing is a cool thing to do will buy it, but outside of that I don't think there are a lot of people who are hungry for another Hero game.

On an even more serious note, don't suffocate roadies, they're people too.

There's a glut of rhythm titles, and a DJ game is naturally going to be more niche than a guitar-based or band game. And that's even before you bring in the fact that it requires expensive peripherals.

Band Hero is a different matter. To me, it's making improvements, even though it falls under the same glut. The songs in Band Hero feature just over 1/3 of songs by female vocalists of all styles. That's significant, and shows that devs are paying attention to who plays their games.

Mcface:
I laugh at all of the sheep who play these games.
Its the same overused DDR crap, for 100 bucks a pop.

I laugh at all the sheep who buy FPS after FPS. It's the same overused Doom crap for $60 a pop.

See... I can be an ass too.

FloodOne:

Mcface:
I laugh at all of the sheep who play these games.
Its the same overused DDR crap, for 100 bucks a pop.

I laugh at all the sheep who buy FPS after FPS. It's the same overused Doom crap for $60 a pop.

See... I can be an ass too.

What are you talking about? Guitar Hero games ARE pretty much all the same, whereas First Person Shooters have many differences from each other

buy teh haloz:
Well, what do you expect? People don't want to play with shit.

I don't think that's true. I bet a game called Grand Theft Halo: Modern Warfare would sell millions.

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