GTA Silence Hurting Take-Two, Says Analyst

GTA Silence Hurting Take-Two, Says Analyst

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Industry analyst Michael Pachter says silence on the Grand Theft Auto front "reflects poorly" on management at Take-Two Interactive because it's putting off investors who might otherwise be interested in the company.

Pachter said management was showing poor judgment by keeping mum on the GTA front, even if development on the next title is still in the early stages. While denying the popular misconception that Take-Two is a "one-hit wonder," he made the obvious point that the Grand Theft Auto series is far and away its most important franchise and said that the "lack of visibility" regarding the next release could be causing hesitation among investors.

"Dan Houser, one of the three key employees behind the franchise, said in a recent interview that the trio hadn't even thought of the locale for the next installment, let alone the plot," Pachter wrote in an investors' note. "While we find this unfathomable, if it is true, it suggests that there will not be another installment of GTA until late 2011 at the earliest, putting the game on a three and a half year release cycle."

"In our view, if the company's most important franchise is on a three and a half year schedule, management owes its shareholders the obligation of informing them of this fact. With no visibility into the timing of the next installment of GTA, we think that many investors will remain skeptical of the Take-Two story," he continued.

Pachter said Take-Two currently brings at least eight "bona fide franchises" to the table and has the potential to raise that number up to 10 or 12, but is hampered, ironically, by "high expectations and high quality standards" that inevitably lead to delays. "If Take-Two can deliver its franchises on a more compressed schedule, its earnings power would essentially double, and the stock would command a much higher price," he concluded.

Just in case you needed more proof that making great games and making lots of money don't necessarily have much to do with each other.

Source: GamesIndustry

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Why would that be a concern?

I don't think it's a sign they're just going to drop one of the most successful franchises ever. I doubt anyone who could invest would be worried about when they announce the game, not if they've done their research at least.

i know that videogames are a business first, then an source of entertainment and lastly an art form, but really, they want them to rush their games, keeping them on a strict cycle?.

does no one remember ET?!, it died for our sins.

I think its a tad bit early if they have not even got a setting, I mean, seriously what could they announce?

Likely they will announce near to the time, and then people can start getting interested. No point in creating unneeded hype for something so early in development

Man, I hate the video-game industry.

Its going to be; GTA5 Tommy Vercetti kicks ass in San Andreas.

Unlike, say Halo or Call of Duty, GTA doesn't need an annual release. Long development cycles allow the Rockstar crew to take their time and develop a fine product.

And here we see the problem with a purely market driven system...

So, Game X makes a bucketload of cash. Investors pony up and want a piece of the next one. The next game (Game X2!) makes even more. The investors, only seeing the almighty dollar, want the Game X3 produced faster, so they can get their hand son even more cash - completely forgetting that it was the time and care put into 1 and 2 that helped make them the successes they were.

Hopefully the investors are told to shove a sock in it and go back to counting their money. It's people like "Industry analyst Michael Pachter" who drive good series into the ground with their "just keep churning them out!" mentality.

008Zulu:
Its going to be; GTA5 Tommy Vercetti kicks ass in San Andreas.

Screw that tomfoolery. I want Rutherford Von Fisticuffington, Duke of Kent kicking ass in London.

Or Scousey McAnderson in Glasgow.

Having an entire GTA game of people with indecipherable Glaswegian accents would be awesome.

Add new graphics and physics to San Andreas kgo.

swaki:
i know that videogames are a business first, then an source of entertainment and lastly an art form, but really, they want them to rush their games, keeping them on a strict cycle?.

does no one remember ET?!, it died for our sins.

I had ET...and it wasn't that hard. I not only beat it i found bugs in it...
the problem with et was the hint how to get out of a pit, well people didn't want a hint they just wanted it to be told to them. So if ET had a hint guide it would have been fine.

Reading the topic brought one thing to mind.
After the implosion of Duke Nukeum Forever.... I can see why they want a bit to chew at, but same time DNF gave fake screens and video all the time.

-Giant corporate Publishers
-investors
-stock prices based on game sales

three major things that ruin games... rather than worrying over making a better GTA game than number 4, they are instead worrying about investors leaving because they're not talking about it enough.

These are early signs the franchise is going to continue it's downward slide... what's next? babysitting more relatives? maybe a gas gague, forcing us to leave a car or pull into a gas station to fill up, further squeezing out the whacky fun of GTAIII and vice city with more washed out colors and "gritty realism"? OH YAAAAY!

Somebody please kick this guy in the mouth.

Does he honestly think that the best way to go is to just flog GTA ever more rapidly? And if there's so little of it planned yet what sort of announcment can they make? Can they just go out and say 'We're planning GTA5'? I'm pretty sure any idiot can figure that out (though Pachter seems unable to it would appear.

You could change the title from:

"GTA Silence Hurting Take-Two, Says Analyst"

to

"GTA Silence Hurting Take-Two, Says Drunken Hobo"

and it would have as much credibility.

See, these "analysis" have never actually made a business for themselves, they just sit on the sidelines making sweeping generalisation, broad assumptions and wild predictions and WE are the idiots for listening to them!

GTA *Could* dumb down for q shorter release cycle and *Could* increase their profits but they would burn out within a few years.

And Pachter has again shown his game-noob-ishness as he has completely forgotten about "Agent" the brand new IP begin developed by Rockstar Games - the same Rockstar that made GTA IV - as a PS3 exclusive.

Fuck the investors, they didn't get Rockstar where they are today. Rockstar, you keep doign what your are doing, you clealry know what you are doing, unlike Pachter who only thinks he has a clue what is going on.

I mean that guy has made SO MANY completely wrong predictions yet he gets away with it because he never puts his money where his mouth is. He would just invest in those places and keep quiet.

Tron-tonian:
And here we see the problem with a purely market driven system...

So, Game X makes a bucketload of cash. Investors pony up and want a piece of the next one. The next game (Game X2!) makes even more. The investors, only seeing the almighty dollar, want the Game X3 produced faster, so they can get their hand son even more cash - completely forgetting that it was the time and care put into 1 and 2 that helped make them the successes they were.

Hopefully the investors are told to shove a sock in it and go back to counting their money. It's people like "Industry analyst Michael Pachter" who drive good series into the ground with their "just keep churning them out!" mentality.

The market is fine, the market got us where we are today with the GTA franchise.

I'd say the entire problem is as you have mentioned these "snake oil salesmen" that call themselves "Analysts" that are screwing up the system with simplistic and self-serving generalisations.

Pachter just doesn't fucking well get games. He doesn't get the market and he doesn't have to, he is paid just to talk about the market and gets paid even if his predictions are wrong or his advice is poor.

It's like he is a virgin giving sex tips.

Treblaine:

The market is fine, the market got us where we are today with the GTA franchise.

I'd say the entire problem is as you have mentioned these "snake oil salesmen" that call themselves "Analysts" that are screwing up the system with simplistic and self-serving generalisations.

Pachter just doesn't fucking well get games. He doesn't get the market and he doesn't have to, he is paid just to talk about the market and gets paid even if his predictions are wrong or his advice is poor.

It's like he is a virgin giving sex tips.

But guys like Pachter *are* to a large degree, the market. Their job is to get the best return possible for investors. How do they do that? BY forcing companies to increase profit. How does a company do that? By laying people off, by cutting corners, and by running franchises into the ground by shipping shoddy work early.

He doesn't have to understand games - he just has to see his portfolio increase. That is his sole concern. It'd be no different were he talking about sneakers or frozen pizzas - cut corners, put out a sub-standard product, let me make more money. And if companies don't listen to him (or another stockholder with clout) then the board starts getting changed around until they have people who agree with that sort of vision.

Tron-tonian:

Treblaine:

The market is fine, the market got us where we are today with the GTA franchise.

I'd say the entire problem is as you have mentioned these "snake oil salesmen" that call themselves "Analysts" that are screwing up the system with simplistic and self-serving generalisations.

Pachter just doesn't fucking well get games. He doesn't get the market and he doesn't have to, he is paid just to talk about the market and gets paid even if his predictions are wrong or his advice is poor.

It's like he is a virgin giving sex tips.

But guys like Pachter *are* to a large degree, the market. Their job is to get the best return possible for investors. How do they do that? BY forcing companies to increase profit. How does a company do that? By laying people off, by cutting corners, and by running franchises into the ground by shipping shoddy work early.

He doesn't have to understand games - he just has to see his portfolio increase. That is his sole concern. It'd be no different were he talking about sneakers or frozen pizzas - cut corners, put out a sub-standard product, let me make more money. And if companies don't listen to him (or another stockholder with clout) then the board starts getting changed around until they have people who agree with that sort of vision.

Wouldn't it be quicker and morally acceptable if they just embezzled all the money?

It is essentially the same thing.

THIS is why the workers in a company should be BY LAW paid not only by salary but by shares, it is such an incredible conflict on interest having third parties control the majority of shares, especially out of touch and feckless individuals who will gladly listen to any "so called expert" like Pachter and be easily led astray.

Carlston:

swaki:
i know that videogames are a business first, then an source of entertainment and lastly an art form, but really, they want them to rush their games, keeping them on a strict cycle?.

does no one remember ET?!, it died for our sins.

I had ET...and it wasn't that hard. I not only beat it i found bugs in it...
the problem with et was the hint how to get out of a pit, well people didn't want a hint they just wanted it to be told to them. So if ET had a hint guide it would have been fine.

Erm, he's not saying that ET was hard, he's saying that it sucked.

Amarok:

Carlston:

swaki:
i know that videogames are a business first, then an source of entertainment and lastly an art form, but really, they want them to rush their games, keeping them on a strict cycle?.

does no one remember ET?!, it died for our sins.

I had ET...and it wasn't that hard. I not only beat it i found bugs in it...
the problem with et was the hint how to get out of a pit, well people didn't want a hint they just wanted it to be told to them. So if ET had a hint guide it would have been fine.

Erm, he's not saying that ET was hard, he's saying that it sucked.

Accually it was a big game for its time, ATARI people if it had more than 8 rooms it was "big" and if it made a figure more than a blue squard vs red triangle the graphic were wonderful.

Listening to morons saying atari sucked is like listening to a F-15 pilot go on about how the wright brothers plane sucks...yeah will it was the first and all people had.

gee that's a simple solution to that , gta vice city payback , female lead seeks revenge on crooked dea and drug lords who killed her bro tommy vercetti... there ya go rockstar , now get to work ... and remember don't screw it up ,if ya need help for more ideas we're here for ya

If the new GTA is anything like GTA IV, then I won't have much interest in it.

oh yeah take ur time rockstar and make it right , we know that you won't f**k it up this time ( ie gta online and realism ) that is all we ask

I still think Michael Pachter is a know it all douche who comments way too often. What about Red Dead Revolver? Great game, coming out soon.

Carlston:

Amarok:

Carlston:

swaki:
i know that videogames are a business first, then an source of entertainment and lastly an art form, but really, they want them to rush their games, keeping them on a strict cycle?.

does no one remember ET?!, it died for our sins.

I had ET...and it wasn't that hard. I not only beat it i found bugs in it...
the problem with et was the hint how to get out of a pit, well people didn't want a hint they just wanted it to be told to them. So if ET had a hint guide it would have been fine.

Erm, he's not saying that ET was hard, he's saying that it sucked.

Accually it was a big game for its time, ATARI people if it had more than 8 rooms it was "big" and if it made a figure more than a blue squard vs red triangle the graphic were wonderful.

Listening to morons saying atari sucked is like listening to a F-15 pilot go on about how the wright brothers plane sucks...yeah will it was the first and all people had.

I Didn't say Atari sucked, I said ET the game sucked
Which seems to be the general consensus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E.T._the_Extra-Terrestrial_%28video_game%29

But hey, thanks for calling me a moron for something I didn't say, cheif.

Nurb:

-Giant corporate Publishers
-investors
-stock prices based on game sales

three major things that ruin games... rather than worrying over making a better GTA game than number 4, they are instead worrying about investors leaving because they're not talking about it enough.

I partly agree. Yet the problem is that even bad an mediocre games sell relatively good.
Especially if you can stamp the GTA label on it. If there were no market or mediocre games
no producer would allow to produce bad games.
It's like Yahtzee says: Not the evil Corporations or Michael Bay are to blame but
the douches who watches his movies and the gamers who buy a new FIFA every year because they
need to have Ze Roberto's newest haircut. This strategy just pays, it's not nice what these firms are doing yet you have to blame the "right" people.

Nurb:

These are early signs the franchise is going to continue it's downward slide... what's next? babysitting more relatives? maybe a gas gague, forcing us to leave a car or pull into a gas station to fill up, further squeezing out the whacky fun of GTAIII and vice city with more washed out colors and "gritty realism"? OH YAAAAY!

While I generally agree, I want to clarify something again:
This is not a result of evil men who sit in black suits with red glowing eyes
around a huge round table in the dark. It is close to the current feeling of the time:
Grim and gritty is as popular as ever and developers design to satisfy the people's thirst
for something like this. I prefer the more goofy style of Vice City and San Andreas as well
but it seems we are the minority. I assume it is a fashion trend and in future games might become a little ore colorful and upbeat but again blame the people who buy this crap.

It is nothing personal but I major in business administration and I absolutely hate
the cliché of the evil investor who screws everything up.

but is hampered, ironically, by "high expectations and high quality standards" that inevitably lead to delays. "If Take-Two can deliver its franchises on a more compressed schedule, its earnings power would essentially double, and the stock would command a much higher price," he concluded.

OR they can pump them out faster, resulting in poorer quality or even if they maintain quality us having a new GTA every year will essentially flood the market with it so it is no longer a thrill, just a same old same old series that we quickly get sick of thus ruining their franchise so its "earnings power would essentially die, and the stock would command sweet fuck all"

See. Any jackass can talk like an analyst. Now where is my paycheck?
I hate it when some cheap suit wearing cubicle monkey tries to tell us how shit works.
Take Two knows their shit. They know what is going to work and hey, if some of their investors are so brain dead as to get worried because the design team is not pitching them the first ideas they come up with then fuck them. Some one else will invest and make money off of being patient with them.

Amarok:

Carlston:

Amarok:

Carlston:

swaki:
i know that videogames are a business first, then an source of entertainment and lastly an art form, but really, they want them to rush their games, keeping them on a strict cycle?.

does no one remember ET?!, it died for our sins.

I had ET...and it wasn't that hard. I not only beat it i found bugs in it...
the problem with et was the hint how to get out of a pit, well people didn't want a hint they just wanted it to be told to them. So if ET had a hint guide it would have been fine.

Erm, he's not saying that ET was hard, he's saying that it sucked.

Accually it was a big game for its time, ATARI people if it had more than 8 rooms it was "big" and if it made a figure more than a blue squard vs red triangle the graphic were wonderful.

Listening to morons saying atari sucked is like listening to a F-15 pilot go on about how the wright brothers plane sucks...yeah will it was the first and all people had.

I Didn't say Atari sucked, I said ET the game sucked
Which seems to be the general consensus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E.T._the_Extra-Terrestrial_%28video_game%29

But hey, thanks for calling me a moron for something I didn't say, cheif.

Then you placed yourself in the moron category I did not just to try and make me look bad and get sympathy?

If someone doesn't flat out call you one, but you focus on the insult and claim your part of that group...not my fault I didn't put ya there. So if you didn't say Atari sucked, why did you put yourself as the subject of those i see as morons?

And honestly I got a box of 300 games that sucked more than that game. Private eye comes to mind, Koolaid man..... ET is just a bandwagon game. If ya can't figure out hold down the button to keep levitating outa the pit...I mean we aren't talking dragons lair pattern know or die game.

is it me or did take 2 also do Bioshock and the upcoming Bioshock 2?

seems to me they're more than a 1 hit wonder

Carlston:

Amarok:

Carlston:

Amarok:

Carlston:

swaki:
i know that videogames are a business first, then an source of entertainment and lastly an art form, but really, they want them to rush their games, keeping them on a strict cycle?.

does no one remember ET?!, it died for our sins.

I had ET...and it wasn't that hard. I not only beat it i found bugs in it...
the problem with et was the hint how to get out of a pit, well people didn't want a hint they just wanted it to be told to them. So if ET had a hint guide it would have been fine.

Erm, he's not saying that ET was hard, he's saying that it sucked.

Accually it was a big game for its time, ATARI people if it had more than 8 rooms it was "big" and if it made a figure more than a blue squard vs red triangle the graphic were wonderful.

Listening to morons saying atari sucked is like listening to a F-15 pilot go on about how the wright brothers plane sucks...yeah will it was the first and all people had.

I Didn't say Atari sucked, I said ET the game sucked
Which seems to be the general consensus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E.T._the_Extra-Terrestrial_%28video_game%29

But hey, thanks for calling me a moron for something I didn't say, cheif.

Then you placed yourself in the moron category I did not just to try and make me look bad and get sympathy?

If someone doesn't flat out call you one, but you focus on the insult and claim your part of that group...not my fault I didn't put ya there. So if you didn't say Atari sucked, why did you put yourself as the subject of those i see as morons?

And honestly I got a box of 300 games that sucked more than that game. Private eye comes to mind, Koolaid man..... ET is just a bandwagon game. If ya can't figure out hold down the button to keep levitating outa the pit...I mean we aren't talking dragons lair pattern know or die game.

Ok, whatever, sure, you didn't call me a moron, that's all well and good, that's fine, let's shake hands etc.

Though neither me or the guy who's ET statement I clarified you ever made mention to it being difficult, so why you keep bringing an "it's not that hard" defense is beyond me. Just in case you're having trouble understanding:

The person I originally backed up said that "does no one remember ET!?" because ET WAS a bandwagon game, it was rushed out (made in 5 DAYS) and mass produced for a quick release, and it was of very poor quality (note how that's why it sucks, not that it was too hard). ET was one of the major factors in the crash of '83. So, by "does no one remember ET?" the poster was merely trying to say that shareholders shouldn't pressure Take 2 to churn out GTA titles at the risk of quality.

Get it? Got it? Probably not, I wholly expect another reply about how the pit is easy to levitate out of.

The person I originally backed up said that "does no one remember ET!?" because ET WAS a bandwagon game, it was rushed out (made in 5 DAYS) and mass produced for a quick release, and it was of very poor quality (note how that's why it sucks, not that it was too hard). ET was one of the major factors in the crash of '83. So, by "does no one remember ET?" the poster was merely trying to say that shareholders shouldn't pressure Take 2 to churn out GTA titles at the risk of quality.

Get it? Got it? Probably not, I wholly expect another reply about how the pit is easy to levitate out of.[/quote]

And you'd be wrong, I have been on the vocal fore front of quality gaming. Now keep in mind a 16k Atari game spit out in 5 days would probley be taking to long in the eyes of the corpers those days.

ET proved in 83 that even a famous movie franchise can't save a over saturated market, and why bother call it ET when you change the sprites 20 percent of the character, call it Phone Home. And pocket a extra 10 bucks off the cart without movie rights.
The gaming crash was just like the 80's movie bust. Where things that were block busters were called failures, and some new copy of Electric dreams Timewalker ect were spit out every few months....what did we get out of it?

Less movies, but pretty special effects, same damn plot and spaced out more...

Games are about the same. ET wasn't poor quality, hell it was still top of the line, But people remember it for one game play mechanic. Once again, 2600 you did not need much to be grade A. The failure was the extra what 4 million copies they think they needed. Over saturation. The game was just that, a game. The corpers screwed up the entire planning of ET or must we forget it took what 9 years to make it to VHS at which point it was out of the eye and missing so long sales were pitiful.

Now a days we have the same problem. But it's more the movie side of the 80's market failures. We had tons of games thrown at us around the PS1/2 Xbox days. Now, the golden sleepers which were blockbusters are considered failures. They started to spread out the games, turn down many good titles, to spit out Madden every year with what? Better graphics. Look at most FPS's they never evolved past doom/quake except how they look and what new weapons you add, yet in the end, shotgun aim for legs charge.

GTA not being rushed is one thing, the question is why is it being held back?

The "hot coffee" scene? Jesus if they are just trying to offend to get the story in the newspaper again, they need to know.... GTA has always been a good sandbox game, the day they delay it to either offend, make skinmaps of pimply asses, or take fifty times longer on how the main goobers hair flows in the wind then the driving mechanics....games suffer.

We have pretty game, but we have crap for games with no meat on them, plot, freedom, intresting characters, and you know what.... you couldn't even ask for 1/100th of that from many 2600 games. But damnit.....I played a lot more 2600 games longer than most the so called block busters of today.

I grew up as a budding gamer in 83, I saw the crash, the rip offs, the price fixing, and what did it get us? Fewer games that looked pretty, which were just as turd laiden as the last batch.

My thing is, don't compare 83' with today unless you understand a bit further how it went down. If 4 million atari's exist don't make 12 million games. In the old bulk era. You can make clone after clone, but if no one buys them....you lose money. ET was about the same code/level design of Adventure, minus a few rooms and no maze.

Now a days you must not only keep the public intrested, you have to come up with stories, voice actors, 3d models, ect and yeah things get pushed back.... But as the cynical ass I am now a days, when I hear good ol take 2 delaying crap it's either to add something pointless to draw media attention to offend, or they are ripping it out which never should have been there in the first place instead of worrying about a end game product.....because GTA is a BANDWAGON GAME. A bandwagon I'd like to see continue as a GOOD game. Not a lame ass, quick put a smoking Crack mechanic to boost sales toss in the bin.

Get it? Got it? Who cares I find it funny.

 

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