Hideo Kojima Believes Consoles are Dying

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Onlive sounds like a convenient gimmick to me and I don't doubt that it will find its place in the market, but I don't think Kojima is right in his absolute extinction vision. Gaming is and always will be a living room pastime. The non portability of the cutting edge gaming hardware does not seem to bother gamers all that much. Consoles will be around for as long as people go home after work and need something to have fun with. Also, he seems to be forgetting that not the whole world is like Japan. Reliable no-limit broadband internet with a top response time is a luxury for many Western countries, let alone more underdeveloped ones, and ignoring those markets equals an instant massive dive in profit. When will 60-70% of the world's population have access to cheap 100mb connections at 20ms in a 2000 mile range? Certainly not in the "near" future, unless he is claiming that making gaming a hobby for the elite even more than it is now is the way forward, which is pretty insane and clueless in my opinion.

Wow, onlive is doing a really really good job convincing people its possible in any way, shape, or form. Ya know, before quantum entanglement based technologies replace all the quaint light-based telecommunication technologies.

I guess whatshisnuts wouldn't be much of a con artist if he wasn't able to make the CRIPPLING FLAWS in his business model / system architecture seem non-existent.

Does anyone care what he has to say? Really? Especially from a man who doesn't even make games anymore. He makes movies with interactive scenes peppered in.

laryri:
You guys have to consider that in Japan, this doesn't seem as far-fetched a claim. The handheld gaming market is much larger than the console market.

It also helps that Japan's broadband network is vastly superior to ours. Connectivity over there is much, much better. The US is quickly turning into the red-headed stepchild of the internet thanks to the assholes at Comcast, Time Warner and the other big name ISPs maintaining a stranglehold on development. All they want to do is jack up prices while avoiding upgrading their networks.

I feel weird assuming I'm right about something to do with gaming if Hideo Kojima says otherwise (being heavily involved in the industry and whatnot) but I don't think this will kick in all that quickly. I don't believe Sony and Microsoft are going to let their console lines go that easily, I don't think consumers will jump at it that quickly either. I wonder if maybe this is because the gaming industry or at least "atmosphere" is shifting in Japan, cause I don't see that at all in north america.

cobrausn:
Don't really see it happening. Not until we break the lightspeed barrier on network communications anyway, then... well, you'll have other things to worry about.

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-160112.html

Those guys are full of crap. You can't use quantum tunneling to send data faster than the speed of light. It's not a matter of, "We don't yet know how to use quantum tunneling to send data faster than the speed of light, but we might in the future." It has been mathematically proven since the sixties that you can't use quantum tunneling for that purpose. Look up Bell's Inequality for more details, I'm not getting into it here.

This is just a hoax, like how every year somebody claims to have a working free energy machine.

Long live the PC Gaming masters.

Make another game like MGS3 and then I'll start considering what you're saying, he hasn't made a great game since 2004 and has ZERO consistency.

Yay MGS1... then WTF(!) with MGS2!?!?!?!!!

He's not master, he's good but he's not a god.

What the hell? Who has time to take a video game everywhere they go? The entire world would become alienated! I think motion sensors and certain areas where every experiance is imitated is cool, but it is only the next generation of console.
( Games are visually inspiring. ART people)

blalien:

cobrausn:
Don't really see it happening. Not until we break the lightspeed barrier on network communications anyway, then... well, you'll have other things to worry about.

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-160112.html

Those guys are full of crap. You can't use quantum tunneling to send data faster than the speed of light. It's not a matter of, "We don't yet know how to use quantum tunneling to send data faster than the speed of light, but we might in the future." It has been mathematically proven since the sixties that you can't use quantum tunneling for that purpose. Look up Bell's Inequality for more details, I'm not getting into it here.

This is just a hoax, like how every year somebody claims to have a working free energy machine.

I'm aware, and I think the article even points out that it's probably baloney. Which just reinforces my point that it probably won't ever happen and streaming games would just use too much bandwidth (especially if a lot of people started doing it).

In the long run, he's probably right.

As the cost of "good" hardware increases, consoles become progressively less and less cost-effective. Couple that with a trend towards more ubiquitous and faster network connections, and it's not unbelievable to anticipate the demise of the current console market.

I think that he's notably premature in making the claim, mind you. We've probably got at least one more generation of consoles before the cloud computing concept really comes into its own.

I hope he's wrong, otherwise I'd have to find a new hobby : P

LimaBravo:
Whats the actual benefit of owning a console again ?

So a guy who is all but computer illiterate like me can buy a game, stick it in my console and play it within seconds without any worry that my machine can't handle it or that something will go wrong and I don't know how to fix it.

I'm going to prove him wrong by reminding him that many people play on consoles for their ease of use. I don't see any soccer moms setting up onlive on to their computer.

Hahaha awesome guy :D Well, the way I see it, Hideo is not only Hideo Kojima but also Japanease. The land where everything is innovated into perfection. You never know what the future might bring but when a jap speaks about technology, you listen :P

He doesn't know what he is talking about... Some thing like that would take years (a lot of them) to get through with. It would be similar to removing the controller and only develop games natal style.

I too dream of a day when I can play games in my all-terrain bipedal battle tank.

Console gaming is just becoming PC gaming.
I wouldn't say its DYING so much as its just turning into a PC that you don't need to update.

I see what he is saying but I still think consoles have a long way to go...they may change, or morph, but they are here to stay.

I couldn't help but get the image of all those obese people from Wall-e (I like Pixar, sue me.) sitting on their floating chairs with the screens in front of them everywhere they go without really taking in the scenery around them, when Kojima said about us having the ability to take our gaming anywhere. Maybe that's just me.

I hope this is not the case. I happen to like consoles and actually owning my games. I can't see this happening anytime soon. However, if it does I'm sure I would have moved on from playing games by the time consoles die (unless Bioware's still making their games ^^).

A bold thing to say indeed, especially in a time of the year where Ubisoft's server problems are in the frame of everybody's minds. Such a world requires acceptance that a game will never be held in your hands, and forever licensed to an account of a service.

This is perhaps more acceptable with Steam and other similarly successful digital distribution platforms, but that's because there's the confidence that they won't break. I've also heard somewhere (can't remember where) that Valve have an emergancy kill switch in a safe that will allow games to run without Steam's servers, just in case something causes Valve to stop existing.

OnLive is appearing to be unrealistically priced, and if consumers are unwilling to pay such money for the license terms they give, then solid ownership of games will stay the norm, along with physically having the game on your person, being able to play it in an isolated box. We are nowhere near accepting a market where a persistant connection to a server; Ubisoft's games are a testament to that, along with C&C4.

We will still have consoles.

I honestly imagine this whole OnLive thing imploding upon itself. I can't imagine successful streaming of AAA gaming.

The day gaming becomes solely cloud computing based is the day I stop gaming.

Wtf does he know, hes sitting on a duck

I Mav I:

LimaBravo:
Whats the actual benefit of owning a console again ?

So a guy who is all but computer illiterate like me can buy a game, stick it in my console and play it within seconds without any worry that my machine can't handle it or that something will go wrong and I don't know how to fix it.

Its been 15 years since I wrote an autoexec.bat, The machine not handling it thing is because of idiotic markets created by fanboisms. I mean if Sony & MS & Nintendo joined forces they could make a decent machine that could really do something special but because they can convince small penised over compensators that the next thing is slightly faster or this consoles better than that, etc the industry cant standardise.

Back in the day you had Voodoo 1, 2 & 3 that was the measure of graphical power, now theyve pulled numbers out their ass & obfuscated the market so people have to buy new ones because they were told that their old one wasnt good enough or it didnt do a certain function.

A technological brick wall would be excellent right now, & we could fling these 50 itterations of the same damn hardware with stupid little tweaks out a window. (Dont even get me started on these overclockers the shower of gimps)

Another thing to consider is back in the C64 days you could buy cartridge games for your computer :D

By the way in case anyone mentions price my PC is fantastic and it cost me less than £450 and most of that cost was needless. Now thats alot more than a console but you get ALOT more for it.

hmmmm...

I'm still putting my faith into a purely DLC-based gaming experience, rather than cloud gaming... while the latter of the two requires an internet connection throughout the whole experience to be able to play the games, DLC is more similar to discs - you can still play them even if your severed from the internet...

My prediction is this: console gaming will still exist, but it will move towards DLC only, similar to the PSP-Go. Hard drives will be massive, naturally, since your downloading full title's... I reckon disc-based gaming will still exist next-gen, but its going to be much more focused on DLC. Sure, game-selling companies will suffer from it, but they can adapt (maybe they could provide fast downloads of games for people with no/slow internet connection?) afterall... and it would be far more convenient for consumers.

All this is probally being said simply because even fans hated the crap factor of the newest metal gear game.
Anyone else noticed this trend in Japan? Franchise releases a crud game (Dynasty Warriors Gundam, Metal Gear Solid 4 and its.... 99% cutscene composition) then suddenly goes off on a tangent against the video game market (Or just a certain area of it)?

Simalacrum:
hmmmm...

I'm still putting my faith into a purely DLC-based gaming experience, rather than cloud gaming... while the latter of the two requires an internet connection throughout the whole experience to be able to play the games, DLC is more similar to discs - you can still play them even if your severed from the internet...

My prediction is this: console gaming will still exist, but it will move towards DLC only, similar to the PSP-Go. Hard drives will be massive, naturally, since your downloading full title's... I reckon disc-based gaming will still exist next-gen, but its going to be much more focused on DLC. Sure, game-selling companies will suffer from it, but they can adapt (maybe they could provide fast downloads of games for people with no/slow internet connection?) afterall... and it would be far more convenient for consumers.

For the love of god I pray not...

Would suck that I reformatted my computer, and made my rare, legal copy of "So&So 5" is gone forever, never to be played by anyone ever again.

laryri:
You guys have to consider that in Japan, this doesn't seem as far-fetched a claim. The handheld gaming market is much larger than the console market.

Yes, and that is Japan, and though a lot of americans for some reason like to emulate the japanese, we won't necessarily follow their lead. I for one, speaking as a PC whore, think consoles are here to stay for a long time, and handheld games are not a medium to replace consoles...at least until you can hook up the handheld to a TV and get the same amount of quality and multiplayer experience. If not more.
So it is worth taking his words as maybe meaning something when living in Japan, but until he decides to make actual games and not movies with game intermissions...his words mean bupkiss.
Cloud gaming won't live past the time when developers finally get the idea up their ass to cut the damn umbilical cord. And definitely won't go anywhere until online is more dependable and speedy for everyone. And that won't happen until ISP's finally get the idea up their ass to get their hands off everyone's throats, throttling net speeds.
The internet needs an enema.

antipunt:

With the massive popularity of current generation consoles, I don't think Kojima's prediction will come true anytime soon, but who knows right?

Pretty much my opinion on the matter. It sounds crazy, but hey, I'm no expert.

It sounds crazy because Hideo Kojima is crazy.
He's especially crazy for not making another ZOE

I think he's talking a load of old shit

IS THAT THE ONLY KOJIMA PIC IN THE WORLD?!

And they'll live.

Yeah consol gaming is dying... thats why they still sell millions of consols every year.
Even if "the cloud" takes over I still want a specialist gaming device to play my games on rather than use a computer.
Besides, Hideo Kojima doesn't make these kind of decisions for the industry (I am aware that no one does.) so it doesn't even matter what he says. He is just one developer.

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